The US population (excluding Puerto Rico) is becoming increasingly multicultural, and more than 40% of the population will belong to one of the 3 major ethnic groups by 2019, according to a recent report [pdf] from Geoscape. This year, non-Hispanic whites are estimated to account for 62.1% of the US population, down from 75.8% in 1990. By 2019, that figure will be down to 59.5%, as Americans of Hispanic and Asian origin will grow to represent about one-quarter of the population.

AdvertisementThat’s a drastic change from 1990, when these groups combined to account for 11.6% of the population. Between 1990 and this year, the share of Americans of Hispanic origin has doubled from 8.8% to 17.7%, while for non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islanders, their population shares are up from 2.8% to 5.1%.

Based on these trends, Geoscape projects that the non-Hispanic white population will drop to a minority by 2040. In late 2012, the Census Bureau forecast that the US will become a majority-minority nation in 2043.

It’s no surprise, of course, that minority groups are growing at rapid rates, but the extent to which these groups are contributing to America’s population growth are noteworthy. Between 2010 and this year, Geoscape estimates that Hispanics (60.3%), Asians (14.5%) and Blacks (12.7%) will have combined for 87.6% of the country’s population growth. Between 2014 and 2019, they’ll comprise 88.9% of population growth.

How does that work out in absolute numbers? The study forecasts that there will be an additional 1.7 million Hispanic Americans per year between 2014 and 2019, along with about half-a-million more African American and non-Hispanic Blacks and roughly 580,000 more non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islanders.

In sum, among the projected 334.1 million Americans in 2019:

• 198.9 million will be non-Hispanic white;
• 64.8 million will be Hispanic;
• 41.5 million will be Black; and
• 19.3 million will be Asian and Pacific Islanders.

• 22% are English-Dependent;
• 31% are Bi-Lingual English Preferred;
• 14% are Bi-Lingual;
• 19% are Bi-Lingual Spanish Preferred; and
• 14% are Spanish-Dependent.

According to Crowdtap, partnered with Ipsos Media surveying 839 millennial men and women online, millennials reported spending roughly 18 hours of their day engaged with media, often viewing multiple devices simultaneously. Whether it’s called peer-created content, consumer content or user generated content (UGC), the research found that millennials spend 30% of their media consumption time with content that is created by their peers.

This exceeds television consumption and is rivaled only by the time spent with all traditional media types (TV, print, radio), a combined 33%. Millennials are also committed to engaging with social media on a daily basis above all other media types.

Millennials spend more time with User Generated Content than with TV

Millennials prioritize social networking above other media:

Given millennials’ advertising savvy and skepticism around media, it is important to deliver a message through trusted sources, says the report. Millennials report that information they receive through UGC is highly trustworthy and trusted 40% more than information they get from traditional media sources (TV, print & radio), including newspapers and magazines.

Specifically, conversations with friends and family are the most trusted UGC format, followed by peer reviews. Conversations with friends and family are trusted 2:1 over TV and radio and almost 4:1 over banner ads. Brands looking for consumers to trust their marketing can no longer rely on tradi­tional media to communicate their messages to consumers. In today’s landscape, it’s peer-created content, or “consumer to consumer marketing,” that drives trust.

The correlation between trust and influence is revealed in the 2013 Annual Edelman Trust Barometer Study, says the report, which finds that trust leads to influence. The more trusted the source of a message, the more likely it will have a positive impact.

With 18 hours of media consumption a day, across multiple screens, with channel flipping, tabbing and page turning, it’s a wonder anything stands out and makes a lasting impression, notes the report. Marketers rely on creative to break through the clutter, but often it’s a combination of creative and the right delivery channel. For millennials, user generated content is more memorable than non-user gener­ated content, with peer-created content, including conversations with friends/family and peer reviews standing out the most.

UGC uniquely provides marketers greater access to millennials’ time, a trusted channel to deliver brand messages and a memorable experience. The combination to deliver all three makes UGC more influential on millennials’ product choices and purchase decisions than traditional media.

Percent of millennials who say media type has influence on purchase decision:

• User Generated Content   53%
• Traditional Media   44%
• Banner Ads   23%

Concluding, the report says that professional influencers have the reach and resources to create and share quality content. Consumer influencers have personal relationships that enable their recommendations to carry weight. Together, this combination can drive both reach and powerful influence. As brands continue to aggregate types of influencers and refine their strengths, these programs will likely become a fundamental component of most marketing strategies.

By Jack Loechner,
Center for media Research